The armed conflict, which has dragged on against the background of the special operation, inevitably affects the economy and social life of the country. The real estate market is becoming one of the most sensitive indicators of change. Supply and demand, consumer sentiment, and investment strategies are all being tested in an environment of instability. But how exactly will the special operation affect the rising cost of housing in Russia? This is not just an economic issue, but a matter of life decisions for hundreds of thousands of families.

Over the past few years, the Russian real estate market has experienced rapid growth. Before the start of the special operation, there was a stir caused by low mortgage rates and government support programs. However, with the outbreak of hostilities in February 2022, the economic situation began to change. Sanctions, outflow of investments, fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate and rising inflation — all this creates an unusual situation affecting the purchase and sale of housing.

Experts warn that in such conditions, markets always show mixed reactions. On the one hand, demand may fall due to the deterioration of the population's ability to pay. On the other hand, the fight against inflation may lead to an increase in the cost of real estate as a protective asset.

Demand and purchasing power
Experts note that lower incomes and increased uncertainty have reduced the activity of buyers. According to Rosstat, in 2023, the volume of mortgage loans decreased by about 15% compared to the pre-crisis period. This leads to a decrease in demand, especially in the segment of new buildings.

Investment demand and protective assets
In the context of inflation and the devaluation of the ruble, some investors are switching to real estate, considering it as a tool for saving capital. As economist Alexander Morozov from the Institute of Financial Research said in an interview, "Real estate has traditionally been a haven in unstable times, so liquid housing segments may show steady or even increased demand."

Proposal and construction
Demand takes up only one side of the equation. Construction companies faced problems in the supply of materials and rising costs. Because of this, the deadlines for the completion of facilities are shifting, and housing prices are rising. According to the Association of Builders of Russia, prices for building materials have increased by an average of 20% over the past year.

Expert opinions
Doctor of Economics Svetlana Kuznetsova notes:
"The most likely scenario is a moderate price increase in large cities due to a decrease in supply and continued investor interest. Regions may face lower prices, especially in locations that are unattractive for business and life."

Housing market analyst Alexey Petrov adds:
"The psychological factor should not be discounted: uncertainty reduces the activity of buyers, especially primary housing. People are more focused on the liquidity and convenience of facilities."

The stories of ordinary families forced to rethink their plans add depth to this picture. Marina, a young mother from Yekaterinburg, says: "Initially we planned to buy an apartment in a new building, but now we are betting on the secondary market — prices are more stable there, and you can bargain." Such changes in preferences are multiplying across the country, showing that in wartime people seek safety and predictability.

Conclusion
The real estate market in Russia is at the crossroads of uncertainty and opportunity. The special operation imposes serious restrictions on the economy, but it also changes the rules of the game in the housing market. The cautious rise in prices in the lion's share of cities is accompanied by a decrease in buyer activity and difficulties in construction. The final effect depends on the dynamics of the political and economic situation, as well as on the internal adaptation of market participants. Nevertheless, real estate continues to be one of the key indicators of confidence in the future, and that is why its price is an indicator not so much of the economy as of the hopes and fears of society.

Keywords: special operation, SVO, real estate market, rising housing costs, mortgage, investments, economic analysis, Russia